natsouth (natsouth) wrote,

Updated 24 Sept: Syria - Post September 17th events

Updates will be provided as needed in either the revelant section or as a new sub-heading.

24 September

Another Russian MoD video briefing very revealing with additional data from them.

3 Israeli F-16 jets grouped (yellow), another one (yellow/red) the Syrian S-200 air defense missile (red), and the Russian Il-20 plane (green)

Data from another fire control system at the Russian base Hmeymim.

Why did the one F-16 deliberate move away from the group and be that close to the Il-20? The other are much further away.

Ministry of Defense of Russia has #Syria #КрушениеИл20 #Russia #israel

The SF Defense Committee proposed to create a no-fly zone in the Syrian Latakia

Russian MoD minister confirms delivery of S-300 to Syria

23 September 2018

Just a reminder what the IDF said about Israeli F-16s

“2. When the Syrian Army launched the missiles that hit the Russian plane, IAF jets were already within Israeli airspace.”

What today’s Russian MoD briefing showed images from the ‘Plotto’ Air system that the Israelis’ were still in the air off Syria at the time.

Israeli version unpicked and seemingly out of fantasy land then?

The data on the Plotto relating to civilian traffic (in green on Jordan/ Iraq border region) matches the info on Flight apps.

The view from Israel

Downing of Russian Jet: Israel Fears Putin Will Clip Its Wings in Syria-

Asked whether shooting down the Russian aircraft would affect the Israeli air force’s freedom of action over Syria, Defense Minister Lieberman performed more evasion maneuvers than the Russian Ilyushin pilots did Monday night.”

Saturday read:
1️⃣From de-escalation to almost World War Three in just 2 hours

2️⃣Putin, Israel and the downed Il-20

Dedicated to FortRuss’s inspired pile of glass ball gazing article on NATO & US Navy in the Med recently published - you’re shit and off the mark - I’m referring to the article on “NATO Warships Amassed by Syria just before Attack on Lattakia“(See part B on HMS Talent for example, that’s just one example!!).

Section A

22 September

Re the Saker’s article (see above link) - this point stands out:

By “warning” the Russians just 1 minute before the attack the Israelis created an environment in which such a tragedy simply had to happen.

One minute from Tel-Aviv? By that time the Russians would have been well aware of a flight of F-16s from their AD systems and naval pickets. (See my comment about the ‘Auvergne’ and the ‘Pytlivy’).

There would have multiple reports coming in very quickly into the Syrian-Russian command structure, with two different attitudes.

21 September

Re the French Navy ‘Auvergne’ presence in the Eastern Med. The French have had a ship off the Levant for a while. Back in April, the French reported being hassled by Russian aircraft.

When the Russian MoD released their visual on the Il-20 shoot-down (scroll down to see it), the FREMM ‘Auvergne’ got a mention. Guess what? There was also a Russian frigate in the vicinity, ‘Pytlivy’. So what ever happened on that night was recorded by their sensors and radar. Until such a time when the Russian MoD releases any more info, none of us will be any the wiser, on the reports (or timing) of missile launches (Aster or MdCN /Missile De Croisière Naval). The French MoD state no missiles were launched from the ‘Auvergne’.

NB: that leads to the question, if other sea-launched missiles did strike Syria, who was it? An US DDG or submarine or Israeli Dolphin submarine.

I am not even going to attempt to understand the sequence of the event and roles, only to say that it isn’t just Israel, NATO and US also key close tabs on Syria and regularly exercise with the Israelis. Sly games, with all pretending to not be in the loop of one another.

20 September

This maybe unrelated to recent events in Syria, nevertheless noteworthy for timing and location:

The RAF escorted two Russian (RuAF)Tu-160 Blackjacks over the North Sea.

There is one heck of a conundrum here #Syria

Russian MoD is now denying the claim that the Il-20 was hit due to a failure in the Friend/Foe Identification (IFF).

Yet it is the Russian MoD who are quoted in the media:

“Syria S-200 that shot down its Il-20 did not have an IFF system for detecting Russian aircraft. Apparently, these IFF systems are not allowed to be exported outside of Russia.”

Just how integrated is the Lattakia coastal Air Defence??? -> see article:

Maybe Syria ought to suggest to Russia that all old #SAA anti-air systems are pulled out. Because if they cannot be integrated with the exclusive Russian IFF properly then they shouldn’t be deployed near where the #Russian operate their main aviation. Then Russia can cover the area with S-400. Or let Syria have S-300.

RIA Novosti reports that the U.S. Navy has offered Russia in help in searching for the downed Il-20.

This is surreal.

The US Navy is apparently ready to provide assistance. RIA Novosti quoted the 6th Fleet representative Kyle Raines.

USAF aerial reconnaissance flight over Eastern Mediterranean,high-altitude U2 usually tracked
19 September Airspace Restrictions

#Syria #RussianNavy. #NOTAM

#Navarea III warnings:

Restricted no-fly zones for Russian Naval exercises, limiting Israeli AF access to much higher altitudes.

#Syria #RussianNavy. #NOTAM

Restricted no-fly zones.

After the shooting down of IL-20, a significant change has happened.
The location & numbers of red coloured sections on today’s map speak volumes on Russian responses. Compare it to Tuesday’s map.

“ it would be steps that everyone will notice, "- President Putin is reported to have said in relation to taking responses to the latest Israeli military attack.

Ah... the Israelis are sending a delegation to Moscow:

Something is not adding up here. Is Russia being polite in taking the action they are? Are they covering for Israel by this spectacular window dressing? Many questions.

The NOTAM map wasn’t full of red boxes yesterday.

Movements of US Navy P-8s over Eastern Mediterranean indicates probable presence of вмф corresponding to NOTAM areas:
Here’s one example:

Just in case you’re wondering about the locations to the south west of Cyprus, that would be where US Navy frequently loiters for Replenishment At Sea (look up when USNS Big Horn was last deployed in Med for example).USNS Big Horn

But also I am guessing that is where the ‘Admiral Essen’ could be too as an outlier- covering the air routes used by NATO, (having just left Poros in Greece).

Lastly, the USS Harry Truman has headed eastwards. The US routinely sends over a carrier or two for decades.

US carrier in 6th Fleet operational zone.

“to conduct full spectrum of maritime ops. CSG's return gives us opportunity to operate & train w/ @NATO allies & partners... to secure safe & prosperous region for all.” Vice Admiral Franchetti.

Section B

20 September

1️⃣ HMS Talent has just left Gibraltar: loaded with TLAMS.

With reference to FortRuss’s article on NATO & US Navy in the Med published - that mentions ‘Western Observers’ and doesn’t even want to acknowledge them by bothering to provde hyperlinks.
One of the ‘Western Observers’ is none other than Michael Sanchez based in Gibraltar. Did the Fort Russ geniuses bother to VERIFY this wildly off the mark comment:

Oh. No. Just adding more unverifiable speculation, based on info that is 13 days old.

18 September Russian Naval activities in Syria…

"Taking part in the search for the crew of the Russian Ilyushin-20 plane, which crashed off Latakia, are eight ships and boats from Russia’s Navy.”

The ‘Professor Nikolay Muru’ is in position off Banias.

Update: the ‘Seliger’ has transited the Bosphorus. It will no doubt retrieve the remains of the crew, parts of the plane for forensic assessments and remove military sensitive equipment from the wreckage of the Ilyushin IL-20 surveillance plane. Much in the same way the Northern Fleet based ‘Yantar’ did with a crashed Su-30 last May.

Interesting: “Seliger vessel (Project 11982) is heading to the crash scene, carrying deep submergence vehicles and also navigation and sonar gear.”

More info

The wreckage of the Russian reconnaissance aircraft IL-20, shot down off the coast of #Syria, found 27 km west of the village of Banias in the Syrian province of Latakia. On Tuesday, September 18, reports Meduza with reference to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

Tou will notice from the Russian MoD image that the ‘Pytlivy’ was in the vicinity of the French Navy ‘Auvergne’.

For info: Israeli AF has previously launched air strikes against Syria from Lebanese airspace or using Lebanese airspace to transit.

So the fact that the ‘Auvergne’ was used as a kind of waypoint is interesting. Begs the question: did the French help the Israeli AF?

Similar, plenty of aircraft activities noted on the day and in the hours leading up to the airstrikes, including one US P-8.

Was the #USNavy P-8 in the Eastern Mediterranean doing some last minute data gathering for the Israeli air strike?

Miscoded US aircraft - USAF either P8 or Rivet Joint? recorded track off the coast of #Syria…

#RussianNavy #вмф
Tags: #israel, #navarea, #notam, #russia, #russian, #russiannavy, #s300, #saa, #syria, #usnavy, #КрушениеИл20, #вмф, aircraft, il-20, russian navy, sar, seliger, syria

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